Women Before And After The Iranian Revolution Cultural Studies Essay

Ladies Before And After The Iranian Revolution Cultural Studies Essay Current Iranian ladies must cling to injuries of dress and guideline, including the shroud (hijab) and full body covering (chador). However this was not generally the situation. Before the Iranian transformation the Shah started modernizing the province of Iran and presenting womans rights. In any case, numerous strict groups emphatically couldn't help contradicting what they saw as an infringement of Islamic culture. At the point when the Islamic Republic assumed control over the ruler in 1979, they started to annul the progressions made to womens rights. This exposition would like to clarify how instruction has added to the attention to numerous urban Iranian ladies to their severe state. It will clarify Iranian ladies both pre and post Iranian unrest and will draw upon the various perspectives Iranian ladies have of Islam to underscore the present province of Iranian culture. At last it will address the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and talk about how researchers of sexual orientation see the subject of Iranian Woman. As substantiated by Elton Daniels, in Iran, exacting social standards and strict guidelines direct and oversee the activities of Iranian lady in the open field. This is on the grounds that Iranian ladies, particularly wedded ladies, are viewed as maintaining the respect of a family; thusly, singular wants are frequently relinquished to focus the spouse and kids as essential obligation. The Islamic Republic plays this job truly and to guarantee that ladies do maintain family respect, Iranian ladies must be escorted by their spouses or male family members consistently, solitary ladies are either fined or detained. Ladies are viewed as the gatekeepers of Irans moral code and accordingly there is substantially less opportunity permitted to them and they should be continually checking their open conduct. Numerous urban Iranian ladies feel themselves confined by harsh mentalities and accused for any mishap that comes upon Irans man centric culture. This strain is growing principally in urb an womens circles and is likely because of the expansion of taught ladies who are getting dynamically mindful of their circumstance. As indicated by Daniels, in an offer to free itself up to the remainder of the world during the 1930s (Pre-Iranian upheaval), Iran was turning into an undeniably modernized state, thusly loosening up the strict and social injuries that bound and distanced Iranian ladies. More schools and higher types of instruction and legislative business (particularly in emergency clinics and schools) were being acquainted with urban ladies and much after the Islamic Republic dominated, they couldn't suppress the developing training of ladies. Urbanization and the extension of instruction offered ladies, for the most part urban ladies, the chance to send their little girls to class. In 1936, the chador was restricted in broad daylight places, which gave the change that was essential for urging ladies to take an interest transparently in open life. Political improvements started to follow, including that of the White Revolution (1963), in which a demonstration was passed that permitted Iranian ladie s to take part strategically. Besides, in the years between the White Revolution and the Iranian Revolution, a few ladies were chosen for the parliament and service of instruction. Be that as it may, there was turmoil between the developing modernizing philosophies and the more conventional country Islamic perspectives. The Shah was managing imperiously and had distanced numerous segments of society; this in the end prompting his oust. The middle class kept on feeling confined by the absence of profession and scholarly open doors accessible to them and the strict segments of Iran governed by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini started to blame the Shah for a debasement and refining Islamic convictions. The misery that Iranians felt against the Shah prompted a strict restoration among Iranian culture and the obliteration of the modernisation of Iranian culture. During rebel against the Shah, mainstream urban ladies and custom rustic ladies cooperated to fight total government and numerous urban ladies wore the Chador keeping in mind the conventional ladies. However, when the Iranian Revolution (1979) demonstrated fruitful, and Islamic Republic took over as the current type of government, the sprouting rights and opportunities for ladies were covered. Khomeini announced that wearing the Chador was presently law; numerous ladies lost their administration positions and it likewise got obligatory to isolate the two guys and females in the open field. Ethical quality police were set up to guarantee that such laws were adhered to. This denoted a huge change for Iranian culture on the grounds that before the Iranian transformation Islamic unobtrusiveness was clung to as strict compassion, at no other time had such orders been made law. The present perspectives looked by numerous urban Iranian ladies are directed by the orders set up post-Iranian Revolution. Numerous urban Women feel smothered by these laws and still recollect when their life was not ordered. In spite of the fact that there have been instances of ladies getting political seat somewhere in the range of 1979 and 2011, a large number of those ladies were set up to assuage the women's activist development and include no force inside the administration. Understanding this, an expanded number of Iranian ladies send mainstream women's activist developments, for example, fighting their complaints through open mediums like the media and press, and common defiance. For instance, conscious inappropriate wearing of the cover and Chador is drilled by numerous youthful Iranian Women and is called terrible hejabi. Awful hejabi comprises of wearing the cover uniquely in contrast to society standards, for example, splendidly hued Chadors and warped hijab, with hair appearing. A meeting with a youthful Iranian ladies clarifies the idea of awful hejabi; Because of these (preservationist) individuals and their forceful reasoning, I trust I am powerless against assault on the off chance that I dont wear the hijab. On the off chance that I was living in a spot where individuals could regard singular decision and not do me any damage, absolutely I wouldnt wear it. I need to show I dont affirm. Wearing awful hejabi demonstrates the longing felt by numerous youthful Iranian ladies to be liberated from their confining man centric foundation and the strict control that they feel has no spot in their lives. In spite of terrible hejabi are the conventional ladies who consider wearing To be dress as an issue of pride and portrayal of their strict society. Ladies that are star Islamic Republic accept that the laws encompassing ladies were based around the lessons of Mohammed in the Koran. Scrutinizing these laws would be scrutinizing the establishments whereupon numerous Iranian ladies carry on with their life. The female Professor Barzin Maknoun responsible for lady issues at the Institute for Cultural Research and Studies states in Iran; The issues have come up in light of the fact that ladies in the west are attempting to be equivalent to men. Ladies work outside the home, however they additionally need to deal with the kids, in light of the fact that essentially shes the person who bears the youngsters. The entire weight lays on ladies now, in light of the fact that theyre attempting to be equivalent to men. In any case, Islam disapproves of this. Islam says the best thing for a lady i s to be a spouse and mother. That doesnt stop her having an occupation or a calling she can do that if her significant other concurs, yet her first employment is to deal with her youngsters. What's more, its the activity of the man to deal with her. Teacher Maknoun speaks to the perspectives held by numerous traditionalist Iranian ladies. Be that as it may, the Islamic Republics disposition toward ladies appears to repudiate the rights for ladies expressed in Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The purpose of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was to guarantee that each individual poise was maintained around the world. Comparable to this view, numerous researchers of sexual orientation are for the most part working in the west and there is by all accounts more enthusiasm for master woman's rights in scholarly circles. Expert women's activist examinations incorporate Rebecca Barlows article, possibilities for woman's rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, or from an investigation perspective like Mahnaz Koushas article, indicators of life fulfillment among urban Iranian Women and Mitra K Shavarinis article, the feminisation of Iranian Higher Education which manages generally despondency and disappointment of Iranian ladies. This examination demonstrates an enthusiasm for the feminisation and abuse of Iranian ladies and less enthusiasm on the Islamic Republic as a genuine type of government. Educator Marknoun was the main professional Islamic Republic researcher found. Taking everything into account numerous urban Iranian ladies feel limited by the hijab and chador because of the severe society they speak to. In spite of the fact that there are circles of customary ladies who see these types of dress as an image of respect and family, wearing the hijab and chador, was initially an individual decision. Be that as it may, this was before the Islamic Republic made numerous strict conventions into law upon the finish of the Iranian Revolution. An investigation of Iranian ladies pre and post Iranian unrest shows that the dynamic training of ladies has added to the urban disappointment of a Womens place in Iranian Society and that numerous researchers of Iranian Women take star women's activist points.

Maude Clare Essay Example

Maude Clare Essay How does Rosetti depict Maude Clare in the shorter, 1862 variant? Could the peruser sympathize with her circumstance? What reason does the storyteller serve? What may the normal world depend on in Rosettis sonnet? In Maude Clare Rosetti depicts a malignant and venomous Clare: Heres my half of a brilliant chain Clearly Claire is angry about her rulers new marriage and needs him to know this. All things considered obviously her ruler despite everything has affections for his special lady since he (looks) long on her in line fifteen of the sonnet. By drawing on three distinct perspectives, fluctuating in noticeable quality, Rosetti can reproduce a significant knowledge into Victorian shows. She embraces a generally female ruled account point of view in her sonnet however the distinguishing proof of the storyteller is fairly equivocal permitting the peruser opportunity to estimate and make their own determinations. We will compose a custom exposition test on Maude Clare explicitly for you for just $16.38 $13.9/page Request now We will compose a custom article test on Maude Clare explicitly for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Recruit Writer We will compose a custom article test on Maude Clare explicitly for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Recruit Writer The Angel in the House, a sonnet by Coventry Patmore, distributed in 1854 romanticizes ladies job in the public eye (p3 The Changing Role of Women): Man must be satisfied; yet him to please is womens joy. What's more, on the off chance that he once, by disgrace persecuted An agreeable word presents, She inclines and sobs against his bosom, What's more, assumes the transgression was hers She adores with adoration that can't tire; What's more, when, ah misfortune, she adores alone, Through enthusiastic obligation love springs higher This prompted an idea which was fundamental to Victorian convictions about the best possible requesting of society. Womens job was unselfish: she exists to offer delight to her better half and it is in offering joy to others that she herself is satisfied. In Maude Clare Rosetti drastically upsets this idea with her portrayal of Maude Clare and, to a lesser degree, Nell. Clare doesn't fit the unselfish picture in the sonnet where ladies lived to satisfy their spouses; rather she acts egotistically barely caring about the results. She doesn't cherish higher when she adores alone (her master has left her), somewhat that affection is supplanted with harshness. Nell, by differentiate is set up to cherish her significant other until he adores (her) best when he is absolutely over Maude Clare. By doing this she exhibits a large number of the characteristics recorded in the sonnet which Clare obviously needs. The topic of natural goodness and tenderness of ladies was gotten by the writer John Ruskin. He composed a content, distributed in 1865, laying out womens position in the public arena. Ruskin accepted that ladies were delicate, frail and delicate (p4 The Changing Role of Women) and ought to be shielded from the cut and push of society. Rosetti separates this generalization in her sonnet by making her most grounded and most noticeable characters female. The ruler (flounders) in his place debilitated by the venomous nearness of Clare. In following Victorian male centric shows the ruler ought to have control over his significant other/paramour however in the toppled reality evoked by Rosetti this position is pushed aside by predominant ladies, for example, Clare. Nell appears to be frail and has less to state toward the start of the sonnet. Rather than taking the focal point of the big day, as would be normal Nell rather relinquishes this thoughtfulness regarding Maude Clare. Our first gathering of Nell appears to help this: His lady of the hour resembled a town house cleaner, Maude Clare resembled a sovereign. Anyway in the last two refrains she begins to challenge Clares perspective which, as yet had been unopposed. This is conceivable since, as Nell is bound to her ruler by wedlock, Victorian culture directs he is obliged to help her and any youngsters she may have with him. She guarantees shell take what was Clares and wear it until he cherishes (her) best. Unmistakably Rosetti wishes her crowd to feel for the apparently honest Nell. There is a demeanor of mystery in the sonnet encompassing Clares foundation, as though Rosetti doesn't feel Clare merits any crowd acknowledgment past her vengeance stricken fa㠯⠿â ½ade. Just little subtleties of Clares relationship with her ruler are discharged, for example, the picture of them swimming in lake and the brilliant chain both supporting a picture of a master who cares for his female inferiorities. Since no clashing proof is introduced by the storyteller the crowd must choose the option to concur. Along these lines the job of the storyteller could be viewed as a vehicle for Rosettis thoughts in regards to the significance of marriage, thoughts which were shared by numerous others in her time. From a cutting edge point of view a few people may be slanted to identify with the dumped Maude Clare, in a general public where a lesser accentuation on wedlock exists. By differentiate Harrison recommends that the peruser may feel little compassion toward Maude Clare in light of her awful planning and queenly disposition which endure in correlation with Nells construed lowliness with comparing to a town house keeper. In spite of the fact that this is an important understanding of the sonnet I feel that most of individuals who can recognize a noteworthy misfortune in their lives may in any event have a level of sympathy for Clares obvious harshness. In the sonnet Rosetti insinuates various scenes from the normal world. In the 6th and seventh refrains she portrays a sentimental day that Thomas (the master) and Maude Clare spend together. The juxtaposition of blurring leaves and lilies sprouting by Clares discourse help to arrange the occasions to the peruser and show the critical measure of time that has gone since Clares sentiment with her master and his marriage now to Nell. The blurring leaves recommend the relationship to be unprofitable and dead, barely the picture of a lavish relationship inferred by the brilliant chain. Anyway the similar sounding word usage of sprouting limb assists with demonstrating the profound association between the couple. Limb is an intriguing decision of word since it bolsters the bud in nature like the spouse should bolster his better half under Victorian thoughts regarding the family unit. The buds themselves are pictures of fresh starts and this could be Clare disclosing to her darling the unde rtaking is finished. In end Clare and Nell could, to Rosetti speak to conspicuous female figures in Victorian culture. For example, Maude Clare, Florence Nightingale who was herself estranged and evaded by the Angel in the House idea esteeming it unbearable (p.5 The Changing Role of Women). Nell, Mrs. Beeton who gave a handy and positive way to deal with the housewife picture of Patmores sonnet however was a long way from the picture of delicate ladies embraced by Ruskin. Rosetti does somehow or another help conventionalist perspectives on ladies in her time, depicting the basic, trained Nell as her hero and demonstrating the unyielding Clare as improper and taking from her any character past that outlined in the sonnet. Anyway I can't help suspecting that Rosetti can't help contradicting the possibility that ladies required shielding from societys shades of malice since the female characters introduced appear anything other than frail.

Parent-to-Parent Program for Coping With ADHD

Parent-to-Parent Program for Coping With ADHD ADHD Parenting Print Parent-to-Parent Program for Coping With ADHD A seven-week parent-led program to help you learn to help your ADHD child By Keath Low Keath Low, MA, is a therapist and clinical scientist with the Carolina Institute for Developmental Disabilities at the University of North Carolina. She specializes in treatment of ADD/ADHD. Learn about our editorial policy Keath Low Updated on July 23, 2019 ADHD Overview Symptoms Causes Diagnosis Treatment Living With In Children Brand New Images/Stone/Getty Images If you have a child who was recently diagnosed with ADHD, its important to know that ADHD impacts all areas of life and can profoundly impact your family. When you are parenting a child with ADHD, you are parenting a child who requires more patience, greater supervision, increased structure, and more creative limit-setting and discipline. Add to the mix a sibling or two and its easy to feel overwhelmed and exhausted. Support and education about ADHD are essential. Classes Provide Support and Education The organization Children and Adults with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (CHADD) has a wonderful parent training program called Parent To Parent (also known as P2P). What is unique and bonding about P2P is that it is an educational and support program specifically designed for parents, by parents. The classes, which span a seven-week period, are taught by certified P2P teachers who are parents of children with ADHD themselves. As a result, bonding takes place between the teachers and other parents. The teachers can relate to all the frustrations, uncertainties, exhaustion and isolation that can often come along with being a parent of an ADHD child. They also understand the questions and practical information about ADHD that parents need. The content of the classes is based on the latest scientific research available  and is updated regularly. Parents in the classes get both the state of the art information as well as the perspective of other parents who have lived with ADHD in their own families. Where to Find P2P (Parent-to-Parent) Classes P2P classes are held throughout the nation and are also available online. The material presented provides practical tools and techniques that parents can use daily to help support their child, better manage the ADHD symptoms, and improve overall family life. Participants also receive a Parent to Parent Workbook with additional information and tools. With these skills, parents feel empowered and are able to approach ADHD with greater knowledge and understanding. The support they receive from the teacher and the shared experience with other parents in the class is truly valuable and can be life-changing. What Happens During P2P Classes? The format of the training includes a series of seven 2-hour classes. Topics include Overview of ADD/ADHDAssessment of Multimodal TreatmentDeveloping Parenting Strategies and Positive Behavioral InterventionsStrengthening Family RelationshipsEducational Rights for Your ChildBridging the Gap Between Home and SchoolResiliency, Teen Challenges, and Future Success

The Causes of the First World War - 1166 Words

This question has formed part of the historiography of the causes of the First World War, a historical debate that has endured ever since the conflict ended. It periodically resurfaces with new theories being advanced such as the Fischer thesis, usually on account of the release of previously unseen documents or because of a shift in the political climate. It has emerged to the fore once again because this year is the centennial of the war’s outbreak and there are plans to commemorate it nationally across the UK. In order to fully understand how Britain’s decision to go to war against Germany is best explained one must engage into the debate revolving around the question of the extent to which Britain and other countries were responsible for causing war. This helps explain the intention Britain had for war which is vital in understanding their decision making process to cause war in the first place. Some schools of thought have come to the conclusion that it was everybody or nobody- the continent â€Å"slithered over the brink into the boiling cauldron of war without any trace of apprehension or dismay.†1 That analysis will be considered in this essay as will the widespread thesis that it was Germany’s aggression which not only created the preconditions for war, but also triggered Britain into war with the political imbalance of power being created from the growing naval and colonial expansion of Germany. Other factors that help explain why Britain went to war against G ermanyShow MoreRelatedThe Causes Of The First World War1406 Words   |  6 PagesOption A: What in your view were the causes of the First World War? How have historians’ views on the war changed over time? Historical events are crucial in human thoughts since they understand themselves better in the present through analyzing their past occurrences. Historical events help us to know the causes of certain past events, therefore, making the cause to entail long-term ideology events and actions. Nevertheless, the causes of certain events may differ depending on the scale of historyRead MoreCauses of the First World War1164 Words   |  5 PagesWorld War I Essay When a nation’s hunger for power and control become too great, the nation may be pushed to do things that may have harsh consequences. This was the case in the early 1900’s when the world engaged in its first major global military conflict. There were a number of causes of the First World War; due to the Treaty of Versailles, Germany accepted full responsibility for the war. Although the Germans had a large contribution in starting the war, they should not be fully heldRead MoreThe Causes Of The First World War1395 Words   |  6 PagesThe causes of the First World War were similar and differed from the causes of the Second World War politically, economically, and socially. Both of these significant, historical events were substantially affected by the interaction of dominating societies during this time period. During the First World War, these leading societies were the European authorities of Britain, Germany, and Austria, with slight assistance from the U.S. However, the United States allocated their full engagement duringRead MoreCauses of the First World War Essay752 Words   |  4 PagesWhat were the causes of the first world war? Many people believe, that the First World War was caused by the assassination of the heir to the empire of Austria-Hungry, Arch-Duke Franz Ferdinand. However, I believe, there were many other more important causes that could have started the war. For example: the rivalry of countries, the alliances (Triple Entente and Triple Alliance), the industries of Britain and Germany, Militarism, Rivalry and many more. Firstly, Germany was trying to expandRead MoreCauses of First World War Essay940 Words   |  4 PagesIntroduction The First World War started in 1914 and lasted for four years to end in 1918 when Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary and Ottoman empires were defeated (Havers 7). There have been a number of causes identified to have led to the war but most of them are not as straightforward as many would think. In essence, the root causes of the war are deeper than most abstract reasons many authors have identified in the past. However, this does not mean that there was no trail of events which directlyRead MoreThe Major Cause Of The First World War838 Words   |  4 PagesLead To The First World War The events that result to or lead to the outbreak of a war form part of history that is highly analyzed and discussed over historical times for number of significant reasons. These reasons include giving answers to questions and shedding knowledge upon some particular patterns that may exist in war circumstances and giving an understanding on how and why they occur. For instance, the First World War was preceded by a number of events globally. The cause of war was introducedRead MoreCauses of the First World War Essay2064 Words   |  9 PagesCauses of the First World War â€Å"The outbreak of the First World War in 1914 grew out of a short term crisis in the Balkans, but any attempt to understand its origins must take into account a number of long standing developments.† (McDonough). To discuss this judgement, we must investigate the causes of the First World War, the consequences of these actions, and to what extent were they responsible for the start of the war. A long term and economical causeRead MoreBritish Empire : A Major Cause Of The First World War1694 Words   |  7 Pages 11/18/14 Global 10 Mrs. DelFavero British Empire in India (1850-1914) Imperialism was a major cause of the first world war; the reason being is that imperialism often led to competition for land as well to nationalism and complex systems of alliances that led to several world powers going to war in 1914; one of those world powers was the British Empire. The British Empire’s presence in India is a perfect example of imperialism and its effects going into WWIRead MoreIn What Ways Did the Causes of the Second World War Differ from the Causes of the First World War?2006 Words   |  9 Pagesways did the causes of the Second World War differ from the causes of the First World War? The First World War (1914-1918) was the deadliest, most destructive war that had occurred in history up to that time; it was of a scale unknown to previous generations. Nonetheless, the Second World War (1939-1945) proved to be by far deadlier than the First One. Both World War I and World War II were total wars fought between the major industrial nations and their empires and both were wars of attritionRead MoreCritically asses three major causes of the First World War2347 Words   |  10 PagesThere are many causes to the First World War, many of which are results of complex developments which took place for a number of years before the war, such as the conflict over the Balkans and the decline of the Ottoman Empire. The most obvious cause may be the assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand. However, upon close examination of the events leading up to World War One, we shall see that this was merely the spark that set off the chain of events leading up to the Great War. One of the main

Relationships Refers To Bonds Between Two Or More People,

Relationships refers to bonds between two or more people, this can be romantic, friendly, family or work related. People seek relationships because they must fulfill their needs. One of our basic needs is to feel secure. We feel secure and safe when we are with someone, for example, at night I don’t like to be alone because I feel unsafe but when I’m with someone this feeling disappears it just gives you a sensation of safeness. Also, people may decide to form relationships because of a common interest, they might be studying the same subject or pursuing the same goals in life so united their probability of making it are greater. Another factor can be love, the need of physical touch or the need of affection can be factors of forming†¦show more content†¦The second reason is that it helps us connect with the other person, it builds trust and it shows we care, overall, everybody wants to be heard. The third reason is that it is more likely that the other person will listen to us and will approve are message. In Venezuela, there is a dictatorship running the country â€Å"Chavismo† and this has ruined this rising developing country. Hugo Chavez governed the country since 1990’s until his death since then he has done everything that he thinks it’s right and by doing so has silent the voices of the Venezuelans. The country is currently governed by his successor Nicolas Maduro and the situation has gone worst, the country can’t even afford hospitals with the essential medical supplies. Maduro follows the same strategies as Chavez not listening to anybody and just doing what he thinks is right for the country. Venezuela could have been a strong country if it hadn’t been for Chavez lack of listening skills. Listening means not just understanding the message, but also understanding the emotions of the speaker. In ordinary listening we hear the words and thinking Where do I agree? Where do I disagree? and What am I going to say in response? In simple terms the spotlight is on us and not in the speaker, however, in real listening the spotlight is on the speaker, we put our self in their shoes, we just don’t listen to the words inShow MoreRelated Developmental Psychology Essay examples918 Words   |  4 Pages Developmental psychology is concerned with how our cognitions, emotions and behaviour change as we grow with age and experience. Babies, only a few months old develop close bonds called attachment bonds with some people in particular. These people are able to settle the child, if upset, more easily than others and the baby will become upset if separated from the attachment object for too long. There has been a big debate in psychology over the precise role the mother Read MoreThe family Debate: A Brief History1032 Words   |  4 Pagesâ€Å"Blood is thicker than water† and â€Å"Family before friends† are two common ideas related to the idea of family vs. friends. 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At Parting927 Words   |  4 Pagesdedication and honesty. If done correctly, the outcome is truly stunning. John Donne’s â€Å"A Valediction: Forbidding Mourning† and Katherine Philips’s â€Å"To Mrs. M.A. at Parting† are two masterpieces of this genre. These poems depict the concept of true love so meticulously that the reader cannot help but envy the relationships presented. Perhaps the reason that these works are so effective is due to the fact that they are incredibly similar to each other. Although some differences are present when itRead MoreCultural Diversity : Differences Between High- And Low Context Cultures1680 Words   |  7 PagesDifferences between high- and low-context cultures A culture of any region provides a complete framework to its inhabitants to how to organize themselves, their actions and thoughts with respect to their environment. Thus culture is not innate; instead it is learned by the people as they continue to live in that particular region. 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I have had the pleasure of meeting seven different sets of twins in my life time thus far. Only one set is older than I am while the rest range from juniors in high school to just starting pre-school. Today, I am going to talk to you about three things. First I am going to discuss the bond that most sets

Right to Housing Under the Constitution of Kenya Free Essays

RIGHT TO HOUSING UNDER THE CONSTITUTION OF KENYA The right to housing comprises an intricate part in the realization of one of the most basic needs of a human being, shelter. Everyone has the right to a decent standard of living as stated in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, a document that has attained the status of jus cogens due to its wide acceptance. Essential to the achievement of this standard is access to adequate housing. We will write a custom essay sample on Right to Housing Under the Constitution of Kenya or any similar topic only for you Order Now It has been said that housing fulfills physical needs by providing security and shelter from weather and climate. It fulfills psychological needs by providing a sense of personal space and privacy. It fulfills social needs by providing a gathering area and communal space for the human family, the basic unit of society. It also fulfills economic needs by functioning as a center for commercial production. Due to various factors including insufficient financial and natural resources, population growth, political upheavals, and rural- urban migration, a vast population of Kenyans especially those living in urban areas end up homeless or in informal settlements. Dr. P. L. O Lumumba in his speech during the World Habitat forum in 2004 described the lengths to which people unable to afford adequate housing go to provide shelter to themselves and their families. He said that some of them end up seeking refuge in, â€Å"slums areas, squatting in informal settlements, old buses, roadside embankments, cellars, staircases, rooftops, elevator enclosures, cages, cardboard boxes, plastic sheets, aluminum and tin shelter. † According to a UN Habitat study done in 2008, 60-80 percent of residents in Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu, live in informal settlements. In fact, the same study shows that while 60 percent of Nairobi’s populations live in informal settlements, their homes occupy only 5 percent of the total land area of the city and its environs. Although right to adequate shelter is a human right, this does not imply that the government is obliged to provide each of their citizens with land and an appropriate house to live in. This is dependent on the laws and policies of each individual country. In Kenya, the debate about the justifiability of housing and some other socio-economic rights seems to be over with the passing of the 2010 Constitution. This is because the constitution has provisions that seek to protect the provision of these rights to every citizen as will be discussed in the next part. 1. 1 The Constitution of Kenya, 2010 When Kenya gained independence in 1963, every Kenyan was relieved to have finally been freed from the yoke of colonialism. The independent Kenya adopted a constitution that had majorly British influence but that seemed to suffice during those early ‘teething years’. But as years passed by, the biting reality that the country had been taken over by neo-colonialists hit home. The independence constitution was not sufficient to protect the general public from the vicious acts and decisions of those in power. There was need for constitutional reform. Kenyans have long struggled for constitutional reform. They struggled because they suffered under an oppressive system of government. Their human rights were suppressed. The power of the state was concentrated in one person, the president. First regions and then local governments were stripped of all their powers. At the center, the president dominated all institutions of the state. Cronyism substituted for politics. Merit counted for little. The law was frequently abused by the government and the exercise of power was unpredictable and arbitrary. The judiciary had failed to protect the constitution and the rights of the people. The civil service and other executive organs lost independence. There was corruption, plundering both of the state and a captive private sector, on a massive scale. The new constitution therefore had to be a document that remedies the shortcomings of the independence constitution. The drafters of the new Constitution aimed to restore the confidence of the citizens with their government. One of the salient features of the 2010 constitution is the incorporation of a strong and comprehensive Bill of Rights. It contains a number of rights, which were missing from the independence constitution, including rights to official information, environment, economic and social rights, and rights of consumers, et cetera. The 2010 Constitution strengthens the achievement of the human rights by limiting the restrictions that may be placed on rights and by establishing a strong mechanism for the enforcement of rights. It also provides for an independent commission of human rights to protect and promote rights and freedoms. Of importance to this research are the Economic and Social rights. Article 43 provides for each person’s right to: a) The highest attainable standard of health b) Accessibility and adequate housing and to reasonable standards of sanitation. c) Freedom from hunger and to have adequate food of acceptable quality. d) Clean and safe water in adequate quantities. e) Social Security. f) Education. Amongst this list of rights is the right to housing. Forced evictions of persons living in unplanned settlements and slums are a common feature of urban development. People living in these informal settlements live at the margins of society. Land is generally an expensive investment in Kenya therefore only a few can afford it. Those who cannot afford it opt to rent apartments or houses or rooms from property owners but there are some who cannot still afford this kind of arrangements and so set up their housing structures on any free land that they come across, regardless of whether it is private land or public land set out for other purposes. This latter group of people is the ones who fall victim to forced evictions. Article 2(5) and (6) of the constitution general rules of international law and any treaty or convention ratified by Kenya form part of the laws of Kenya. Kenya ratified the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) on 3/1/1976 and consequently became bound to respect, protect and enforce the rights therein, including the right to adequate housing and the related prohibition of forced evictions. It is with this backing of the law that victims of forced evictions that are not conducted in the manner stipulated in both domestic law and international law are able to defend their right to housing through the courts. ——————————————- [ 2 ]. Article 25(1) which states in part, â€Å"Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care†¦Ã¢â‚¬  [ 3 ]. Nicholas Okemwa, Forceful Evictions and the Right to Adequate Housing(2011)16 ; The Bench Bulletin 58 [ 4 ]. Dr. P. L. O Lumumba, Powers of Urban Authorities over Settlement Control: The Kenyan Case. He presented this paper during the world habitat forum organized by un-habitat held on the 13th –17th September 2004 at the Barcelona, Spain [ 5 ]. Preliminary Results of the 2009, National Population and Housing Census. [ 6 ]. Draft Eviction an Resettlement Guidelines, 2010. [ 7 ]. Commentary on the Kenyan Constitution, (Consolidation of 15 articles in the East African Standard). [ 8 ]. Article 35 [ 9 ]. Article 42 [ 10 ]. Article 43 [ 11 ]. Article 46 [ 12 ]. Article 24 is the only article that provides for the specific procedure to be followed for a right contained in the Bill of Rights to be limited. This is unlike in the independence constitution where each right was immediately followed by a claw-back clause. [ 13 ]. Article 11 How to cite Right to Housing Under the Constitution of Kenya, Papers

Multiple Intelligences Essays - Intelligence, Educational Psychology

Multiple Intelligences The article that is to be reviewed is "Identification of giftedness in culturally diverse groups" by Wilma Vialle in Gifted Education International, 1999, Vol 13, pp 250 -257. In this article Vialle (1999) recognises the under representation of disadvantaged students in educationally gifted programs. Vialle identifies the disadvantaged students as being children from "...non-English-speaking backgrounds, indigenous children and economically disadvantaged children" (Vialle, 1999, p250). Vialle suggests the cause of this under representation of disadvantaged students lies in the linear model approach "..whereby a narrow set of identification procedures? usually an IQ test? is used to identify gifted students who are then placed in a program that may or may not be specifically designed to meet their intellectual strengths." (Vialle, 1999, pp. 251-252). Vialles perceived resolution to neutralise these disadvantages occurring in the identification of giftedness is to use an identifying procedure that shifts from the more traditional approach of mainly IQ testing to a more diverse, multi-facet approach that supports the use of Howard Gardner's Multiple Intelligence's Theory. Gardner's Multiple Intelligence Theory opposes traditional methods that view intelligence as unitary, and perceive's intelligence to contain seven distinct domains. These domains include and can be defined as follows: Linguistic Intelligence is the ability to use language to excite, please, convince, stimulate or convey information; Logical-mathematical Intelligence is the ability to explore patterns, categories, and relationships by manipulating objects or symbols, and to experiment in a controlled orderly way; Spatial Intelligence is the ability to perceive and mentally manipulate a form or object, and to perceive and create tension, balance, and composition in a visual or spatial display; Musical Intelligence is the ability to enjoy, perform, or compose a musical piece; Bodily-kinesthetic intelligence is the ability to use fine and gross motor skills in sports, the performing arts, or arts and craft production; Intrapersonal Intelligence is the ability to gain access to and understand one's inner feelings, dreams, and ideas; and Interpersonal Intelligence is the ability to get along and understand others. (Hatch & Gardner, 1988, cited in Vialle 1999, pp.252-253). Using these aspects for assessment criteria to identify giftedness in particular areas, instead of traditional measures is the key argument presented in this article. Several other authors have share the same view as Vialle when concerning disadvantaged students, but offer different assessment procedures again. In agreeing with Vialle, Bolig & Day state that "Traditional intelligence tests...specify neither how, nor what, to teach to improve performance; they discriminate against minorities and individuals whose backgrounds are not middle and upper-middle class; they fail to address individual differences in motivation, personality, and/or social competence....and they only assess one dimension of an individual's abilities, that of intellectual ability."(Bolig & Day, 1993, p. 110). Bolig & Day then present their method to identify gifted students in a non-discriminating manner that consists of the concept of dynamic assessment. Dynamic assessment includes static measures of ability as well as dynamic measures that consist of "...tests of ongoing learning that measure how easily the child acquires new knowledge and skills. (Bolig & Day, p. 110). The idea presented seems underdeveloped when compared to that of Vialle as collecting portfolios of children work is done in many schools already, and the disadvantage has more potential to occur when compared to using Gardner's Multiple Intelligence Theory. Multiple Intelligence Theory in identifying giftedness contains enough scope to break some of the culturally diverse barriers sometimes experienced because of the three underlying principles of Gardner's Theory that are pluralisation, contextualisation and distribution."Pluralisation involves the recognition that intelligence is a complex, multi-faceted concept; contextualisation demands that intelligence be interpreted in the light of the milieu in which the individual functions; and finally, distribution involves the individual's relationship with other resources and artefacts, particularly the ways in such resources are used to support or enhance intelligent behaviour". (Gardner, 1994, cited in Vialle, 1999, p. 253). In using a multi-facet assessment procedure students from diverse backgrounds are able to show an array of skills in different areas of intelligence, and be recognised as containing such attributes, that were not traditionally thought about as being intelligence until recently. There are still many differing opinions about intelligence and there are limitations recognised in both models, traditional and contemporary. Berk (1997) in discussing Gardner's Theory acknowledges the importance and connotations for the field of Intelligence recognition, but also raises some limitations and states that "..neurological support for the independence of his intelligence's is weak....[and that] logical-mathematical ability, in particular seems to be governed by many brain regions, not just one. (Berk, 1997, p307). Berk (1997) also recognises that some current mental tests assess some of the main intelligence's identified by Gardner

Progressivism in the United States

Progressivism in the United States took place in the period between the Spanish-American War and the entry of the United States into the great World War. It was a time for change in America in all walks of life, as well as a time for reform. It was marked by Theodore Roosevelts 7 and a half years in office, the Rough Rider put it upon himself to make the first strides towards reform. These reforms included the cracking down on illegal monopolies and so forth. During this era large cities transformed into large metropolises, small towns into large cities and new towns sprang up nearly everywhere. Reforms also included the seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth amendments. The progressive era really had significant impact in Americas history. The progressive movement had many origins. One of these was the battle against governmental corruption and inability, in other words a struggle for civil services reform. The progressive movement was initiated by liberals in both political parties, the fight for government reform can be traced back to Liberal Republicans(An Oxymoron, Mr. Jetel?) during the Grant administration and Mugwumps. Citizens were enraged, with big businesses growing influence in all branches of government and sought ways to purify it. Big Business was also a target of progressivism. During this time presidents like Roosevelt and William Howard Taft tried to regulate and control big business. Many well educated people of the time, as well as moderately prosperous businessmen and members of other professions(middle class) felt threatened by the increasing power of big business and the tycoons. These people were also disturbed by the Big business influence in politics, making a mockery of the democratic system. Then with the failure of the interstate commerce act and the Sherman act, made big business look unstoppable. As...

Mark Twain Quotes on Education and Schooling

Mark Twain Quotes on Education and Schooling The genius writer and father of American literature,  Mark Twain, was not educated beyond elementary school. His expresses cynicism toward the mediocre education system of this time in his quotes about education. He believed that schooling was different from education and learning. He warns us of the hazards of following the education system with blind faith. In Praise of Learning and Training Training is everything. The peach was once a bitter almond; cauliflower is nothing but cabbage with a college education. The man who does not read books has no advantage over the man that can not read them. There is nothing training cannot do. Nothing is above its reach. It can turn bad morals to good; it can destroy bad principles and recreate good ones; it can lift men to angel ship. Every time you stop a school, you will have to build a jail. What you gain at one end you lose at the other. Its like feeding a dog on his own tail. It wont fatten the dog. It is noble to teach oneself, but still nobler to teach others - and less trouble. A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. Thousands of geniuses live and die undiscovered - either by themselves or by others. Learning softeneth the heart and breedeth gentleness and charity. Criticism of Schooling Education consists mainly of what we have unlearned. We have not the reverent feeling for the rainbow that a savage has because we know how it is made. We have lost as much as we gained by prying into that matter. God made the Idiot for practice, and then He made the School Board. Just the omission of Jane Austens books alone would make a fairly good library out of a library that hadnt a book in it. I never let my schooling interfere with my education. Everything has its limit - iron ore cannot be educated into gold. All schools, all colleges, have two great functions: to confer, and to conceal valuable knowledge. Mark Twain Quips on Specific Subjects The very ink with which all history is written is merely fluid prejudice. I dont give a damn for a man that can only spell a word one way. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable. Classic. A book which people praise and dont read. I was gratified to be able to answer promptly, and I did. I said I didnt know. Why shouldnt truth be stranger than fiction? Fiction, after all, has to make sense. We could use up two Eternities in learning all that is to be learned about our own world and the thousands of nations that have arisen and flourished and vanished from it. Mathematics alone would occupy me eight million years. Many public-school children seem to know only two dates - 1492 and 4th of July, and as a rule, they dont know what happened on either occasion.

Human resource performance Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Human resource performance - Essay Example As coaching managers, they have to pay attention to the behaviors, values and skills that are linked to the desired outcomes by the organization. As the senior manager, I will emphasize on the need for listening as this aspect is counter-intuitive. For instance, I would ask the managers to meet with the employees or even the supervisors and managers so as they discuss the difficulties they encounter. Through sharing their points of view, these parties develop rapport; thus, accommodate each others point of view. Additionally, I will plan to focus on the behaviors that need to be changed. I will highlight these change areas in meetings. For instance, I will clearly highlight that use of unwanted language is unacceptable in the office, with specific examples that some employees or even supervisors used. Through explaining this out rightly to the employees will reduce chances of reoccurrence of the same as the particular individuals with these behaviors will know that have been identified from the crowd (Bacal 162). As the senior manager, I will focus on the need to explain the importance of interpersonal relationships in the workplace. As argued by Bacal, performance can only be attained in an organization only if another people’s interests are identified and respected (155). In this case, chances of verbal abuse will be minimal as the managers will instill the feeling of co-working in the entire workplace. None of the employees or supervisor will, therefore, take up a perfectionist role; thus, reduction of hostility and an increase in the employee relations (Weintraub & Hunt 112). In terms of increased turnover, I will train managers on the need to be more patient while hiring and not do it out of mere desperation. Gathering adequate information on an applicant is vital for the long term success of the company as the manager will hire the best person from the list of

Managing Human Resources Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 3

Managing Human Resources - Essay Example Whenever the missionaries fail to adapt or coagulate with the foreign culture, repatriation becomes a necessity. The organization recalls the missionaries back to the home country, and this reduces the risks of losing foreign ventures entirely (Anderson, 2005:57). The use of technology in the recruitment process established by Callaghan and Thompson relate all activities closer to the employee activities. The point is that, the management must establish the communication medium that will effectively relay information within the organization. Secondly, employees are the point of consideration in telemarketing. Whenever a customer makes a call, the employee should answer the questions with the utmost degree of concern to solve an issue rather than turn emotional and furious. The management may consider evaluating the work relations among employees in a communication service oriented firm. The best employee should bear technicality in handling tasks, be of a good personality, easy to communicate, and always exhibit competence in performance of tasks (Callaghan and Thompson, 2002:35). The third article analyzes human resource management on the diversity posed in different nations in the globe. The political stature prevailing in every economy affects the businesses and labor relations accordingly. Communists’ states implement practices that tend to utilize labor for the country’s benefit and not for the sole worker. On the contrary, capitalist states ensure that employee work to earn the agreed amount of money as they deliver services to the organization. Most of the countries emphasize on interviewing a prospective employee prior to employment. The firms must outline the various qualifications that the employee holds in relation to the job. It is advisable for the management to establish the cultures comprised in the organizations, from one geographical region to another (Chapman and Webster,

Pricing And Non Pricing Strategies

Pricing And Non Pricing Strategies This paper discusses about business proposal and details the pricing as well as non-pricing strategies. It also details the planning and operating decisions for the existing service that based upon the stage of economy in business cycle. It recommends an appropriate course for the service that based upon the projected credit markets and also evaluates how the current credit market affected the planning of goods and services. This paper recommends the business decisions in order to estimating the international economic conditions. It also concludes with this concept by providing internal economy effects for the planning of goods and services. Recommendation of pricing and non-pricing strategies The pricing strategies were the strategies that encompassed in order to improve the economic stage in the business cycle. The cost plus pricing was the strategy that can calculate the cost of producing goods and services to the business cycle and this strategy have taken the consideration in the case of fixed and variable costs of new good or services in business cycle. The market oriented pricing was also the strategy that can set the price of goods and this price was dependent upon the pricing of competitors. Target pricing was the one that based upon the economic stage in the business cycle for the existing goods or services. The non-pricing strategy occurred when the organization decided to distinguish its products from their competitor products in order to make the quality of service to the services. This strategy was also to maintain the market share without altering price. It included the advertising, service quality and longer opening hours for the exiting goods and services that based upon the stages of economic in business cycle (Mark Hirschey, 2008). Operating decisions for goods or services The operating decisions included the product, price distribution and advertising as well as promotion. The product was the operating decision that created as a result of a process and this product was the combination of tangible or intangible attributes for the existing goods and services that based upon the economic stages. The price was the second operating decision of goods and services in the case of providing the quantity of compensations that was given by one party to another party. In economic stages, the price was expressed in the form of currency. The distribution was the third operating decisions that were the process of making service that available for using consumption and this consumption based upon the economic stage in business cycle. The three types of distributions were intensive distribution, selective distribution and exclusive distribution. The advertising was the best suitable concern for goods and services that informed to the potential customers about services for obtaining them and the promotion included the advertising for the product line. Appropriate course for services The Xerox planning model was the appropriate course of action to make the business decisions on projected economic state in the business cycle. This planning model was based upon the financial simulations for creating the proposed planning alternatives. This Xerox planning model was also computed the financial implications of alternative marketing and production policies under various environmental conditions and generated financial statements for each set of inputs in goods and services. The optimum seeking capability was the form of Xerox planning model that developed for facilitating the selection, evaluation and alternatives of goods and services. This course of action recommended to the marketers in order to illuminate the indicators of forthcoming trends. The results of this course of action were affected by a continuation of macroeconomic trends in the global financial areas. The projected credit markets can get the innovation due to implementation of this course in the case of computing the financial goods and services (Tom Sant, 2012). Current credit market conditions The credit markets conditions could be used to raise the funds through debts issuance and the credit encompassed both investment grade bonds and short term commercial paper. The credit markets offered the bonds, securitized obligations to the goods and services that based upon the stages of economic in business cycle. The current credit markets affected the operating decisions positively by promoting the product, pricing, distribution as well as advertising to global marketing. The planning or the operating decisions of services were established by the current credit marketing conditions. This credit marketing increased the facilities to get more profit for services by the protection of good credit marketing reputation. It was used to increase the quality of operating decisions for getting more service opportunities in business cycle. The special function of planning could be served by the current credit marketing conditions in order to increasing the morale value of goods or services that based upon the stages of economics in business cycle. Business decisions Utilization of variety of sources for collection of data The business decisions were based upon the primary as well as secondary sources that could make the services effectively in order to enter into the business cycle. The primary sources included the survey methodology, sampling methods for the projected economic stages. The secondary resources included the internet research, published data and product data for the collection of data. This business was to store the information, protect the ethical issues. Understand a range of techniques to analyze the data This was also the effective business decision in order to analyze the data for making the business purposes effectively. This business decision represented the value of mean, median and mode for making the valid conclusion for the goods or services. The standard deviation of this data analysis was used in the case of measuring the dispersion. The business values were dependent upon this range of techniques in order to analyze the business data effectively. Effects of international economy The international economy was having influences on the business planning or operating decisions positively. The international economy provided the power and authority to business planning or operating decisions. The business planning could also be implemented by the effect of international economy and also this economy provided the contribution in the case of enhancing the business goods and services. The business goods and services could be reached into the global market due to the impact of international economy. The challenging influences could also mitigated by the effects of international economy thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s why operating decisions of business will be protected effectively. The business goods and services has benefited with the attainment of cheap labour, technology as well as capital and this effect had promoted the planning and operating decisions for the better enhancement of business goods and services. The business growth was also based upon the arrival of international economy thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s why this economy influenced on business planning positively. Additional recommendations for economic conditions Determine the pricing strategy to meet organizational goals This was the recommendation in order to ensure the organization smoothly and this recommendation was based upon the economic conditions. The utilization of cost pricing was essential to the organizational products and services. This strategy recommendation could set the price at the production cost of company that included the fixed cost at the current volume, cost of goods and certain margin profits. The pricing strategy was used to determine the product at lower prices and this recommendation was established in the case of addressing the new strategies for the development of organizational products and services. This recommendation also allowed the organization to capture the new clients in the market for building the image for the new products thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s why the implementation of pricing strategies was essential for an organization. Conclusion The concepts of business proposal and pricing as well as non-pricing strategies were discussed. The operating decisions of organizational services were detailed and the recommendations of appropriate course for projected credit markets were described. The conditions of current credit market on organizational goods and the recommendations of business decisions were examined. The influence of international economy on organizational products and the additional recommendations for the organizational improvement were concluded.

Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas Pipeline Projects in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 Civil Engineering Department University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Abstract In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed.Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices ar e also important risk factors.All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks.Keywords: Oil and Gas pipelines; Risk Analysis and Management; Monte Carlo simulation 1. Introduction Oil and gas sector is considered as back bone of any country’s economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, transportation and even domestic utilization of the energy depends on oil and gas sector. Almost 80 % of power generation is oil and gas based (50% gas and 30% oil) [1]. For efficient energy production there is a need of efficient transportation system (main and distribution network of pipeline) in the country, which is not sufficient to fulfill the country’s requirement.As per World Bank Report only 21% of the total population of the country has access on natural gas. Due to the growing demands, pipeline network is expanding vigorously as during the last 10 years the network of main and distribution gas pipeline was expanded by 85% [2]. Currently Pakistan is meeting its gas demand by internal sources but by the year 2011 the difference between country’s gas demand and supply will be 1. 2 Bcfd which will rise to 3. 1 Bcfd by the year 2015 and ultimately to 11. 1 Bcfd by the year 2025 [3].To fill the gap between demands and supply Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipeline from neighboring countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar are available for gas import. Figure 1 shows that route of future cross country pipeline. In Pakistan, expected investment in pipeline construction is within range of 7 to10 billion dollars during the next 5-10 years [4]. Structure and characteristics of risk are different in different mega project such as Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline due to multi-party involvement from different geographic locations and regulatory structure [5].These mega projects may be termed as international projects defined as those where the owner and/or contractor may be from a country different to that of where the project is situated typically involve a wider range of issues than domestic projects and in effect, moving outside of one’s usual business jurisdiction interjects many unknowns. Factors impacting owner investment decisions with international capital facilities can be quite complex and may vary significantly from region to region and project to project [18].Nature and impact of risk are different in different stages of project life cycle of pipeline projects. For most e ffective risk management it is recommended to plan, analyze and manage risk in all phases of project life cycle i. e. initializing, concept clearance and feasibility, design, construction and operation. Understanding the relationship between risk Corresponding Author: S. Mubin ([email  protected] edu. pk) Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan management and project phases for capital projects can be a difficult task.For instance, some risks are negligible in construction phase but are of vital importance in design phase such as earthquake. While dealing with risk management of international projects, which are often first or one-time efforts and project progress and phasing decisions can be isolated from risk management. For most international projects, different participants are responsible for control of the various phases of a project’s life cycle. In many cases, the project owner is largely responsible for program analysis, a thirdparty is often hired to design (engineering), construct, manage and control to meet the initial onstraints set by the owner [6]. Contractor is hired to construct the project, which turns the results over to the owner for operations or production. Structuring projects with distinct phases and responsibilities can increase risk by isolating the project participants in such a manner that minimal attention is given to overarching project concerns. Individual project participants become concerned with only their own project risks and either willingly or unwillingly try to transfer these risks to other project participants.To limit the scope of this paper the discussion is confined to the risks occurring during construction and operation phase. Figure 1: The routes of future gas pipeline project in the region. The uncertainty in undertaking construction of a pipeline project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. Since each participant tries to m inimize its own risk, the conflicts among various participants can be detrimental to the project. Systematic risk management of project activities is not fully recognized as valuable by practitioners in the construction industry.No common view of risk exists since the owner, investor, designer, and constructor have differing project goals and objectives, and historically adverse relationships are common. In recent years, the concept of â€Å"risk sharing/risk assignment† contracts has gained acceptance in pipeline design and construction. The distribution of risk between the client and contractor tends to overshadow effective management strategies and investigations show that contactors and owners give minimal consideration to risks outside the realm of their own concerns.The Federation Internationale des Ingenieurs Conseils (the International Federation of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the International European Construction Federation (FIEC) publish two well-known and wi dely-accepted forms of conditions of contract for international construction projects (the Red and Yellow Books) that include provisions on the fair and equitable risk sharing between the owner and the contractor as well as risk responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance [7].Considering technological point of view geographical conditions of Pakistan are very complex for the construction of pipeline projects. Almost 50 % of the total area of Pakistan is mountainous or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 area there is wide network of rivers and canals (Figure 2). Therefore, for linear structure like pipelines there are extensive crossings and sometimes extreme site conditions are met, where degree of risk is increased as compare to normal conditions of construction.On the other hand, risks during operation of pipelines have different characteristics depending upon the strength and weakness of operating organization, topographi cal, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country where project is executed. While dealing with natural risks, the geology and geographical characteristics of the regions must be thoroughly studied. For instance, the two continental plates i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which highly impact on the eodynamics of the region which are the major source of earthquake [8]. In monsoon period there is high probability of floods. Typical topography, steep slopes, high rainfall in a specific period (JuneAugust) and high temperature (melting glaciers) are the dominating factors for intensifying the frequency of floods in a particular year. Considering geopolitics of the regions there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism.The economic instability has added the problem due to that there is frequent change in economic parameters. All these are in fact the potential risks for any construction project especially oil and gas pipelines in which risk are multiplied many fold and there is exponential rise in damage in case of occurrence of one or more risks resulting huge human and environmental losses. Figure 2: Map of Pakistan showing important geological and geographical features of the country . Classification of Risks For effective Risk Management, risk classification is of prime importance. There are many kinds of classifications have been made so far [10]. In general, risks associated with pipeline projects may be classified as broadly: †¢ †¢ Risk during Construction Risk during Operation However, in operation, risk are slightly different, in which emphasis is given to avoid those factor with hurdle safe and smooth operation/functioning of pipeline.Usually, in mega projects such as cross country trunk pipelines investment risk are considered most import followed by the security risk. More precisely, risk during construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines can be divided into following categories (Table 1): The type and causes of risk in each class are different. Risks during construction are time susceptible and the probability of occurrence of different risk are time dependent, more is the duration of project higher are the probabilities.These are generally related to execution of work processes, material availability, manpower, finances (budget), time frame, accidental, legal and environmental. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Political risk Socio-economical risk Technical risk Organizational risk Natural catastrophic risk Financial risk (investment risk) Safety and security risk Environment risk Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table1: Risk Classifications No 1. Category Risk Political risks Unstable Govt. olicies Change in economic parameters Breach in contractual relationship Unrealistic cost baseline and financial delay Inefficient communication Accident during construction or operation Earthquake Risk Factors Change in labour policy Rise in inflati on and material prices Loss of venture or partnership Exchange rate risk and rise in interest rate Inefficient and conventional technologies Not use of HSE policies and standard floods Damage to surrounding environment Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Seasonal unavailability of labour Unrealistic SWOT analysis Strikes, lockout, lawlessness Change in economic policies and tax system Fine or compensation 2. Socio-economical risks Organizational risks 3. 4. Investment risk Disinvestment from market Insufficient resources and equipment Terrorism or war Strong credit policy Quality risk and rework Human error (Damage or loss of machine or human resource) Weather conditions e. g. humidity, precipitation Damage to ecology and wildlife 5. Technological risk 6. Security risk 7. Natural and climatic risk Landslide, hurricanes Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. Damage to Environmental risk natural resources 2. 1 Political Risk The effect of country’s policies on the project directly impact on project success or failure.During the policy making process, technical factors are usually ignored and policies may be set in a way that operation of a project may not be economical or trade offing. This factor is also important in unstable governments, where there is more risk of change of economic, petroleum or labor policies, which are directly related to the pipeline projects. Delays can occur due to laborious and detailed procedure for approval from public safety regulation department, environmental regulation agencies and oil and gas regulatory bodies. Public health, safety and environmental concern are more important in the western countries as compare to developing countries like Pakistan. Policy and political risks are more concerned in international project risks, such as cross border pipeline projects.In international projects these risks 25 are sometimes overlooked or assessed haphazardly. Such risks include war, civil war, terrorism, expropriation, in ability to transfer currency across borders, and trade credit defaults by foreign or domestic customers [6]. Although risks such as civil unrest and economic stability are typically outside the scope, understanding and dealing with these risks are critical for companies working internationally. A 2001 study by AON Trade Credit discovered that, in the Fortune 1000, only about 26 percent of companies had in place systematic and consistent methodologies to assess political risks [6]. 2. 2 Socio-economical riskSocio-economical conditions further reinforced the climate of uncertainty with high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction. These risks can be forecasted and linked with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators are tending to grow regardless of the political instability in t he country. The GDP of the country was 8. 4% prior to 2005 earthquake, which declined down to GDP 5. 6 or less currently. Earthquake and floods during the last two year costed government approximately $5. 4 B and expected to spend more $3. 6bn till 2010.Overall there is growth in the market and potential for foreign investment in construction sector [1]. 2. 3 Technical risk The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in new technologies which present new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has become greater in many instances. Certain design assumptions which have served the professions well in the past may become obsolete in present time. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of uncertainty during construction.Because constructi on procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers and contractors have suffered for undertaking such projects. There is a need of technological advancement to overcome this risk. statistics, geological surveys, sub surface investigation through various method has given rise to the development of such techniques which can not only quantify frequency of occurring of such phenomenon in a particular region but also their impact and destruction. Northern areas of Pakistan are considered in high seismic zone [8] particularly after incidence of 8th Oct. 005 earthquake, in which more than 86000 people died and one million got injured and 3 million became homeless, this factor is highly considered in planning, feasibility, design and construction of the any construction project in the region [9]. The major re ason is the plate tectonic motion in Himalaya, northern part of Pakistan. This plate tectonic motion is due to the uplift of Euro Asian plate by Indian plate (two plates are meeting in Pakistan) 2. 6 Investment risk Pipelines are mega project. A lot of funding is required for the completion and safe operation of pipelines. Investment has been always a prime risk in construction project due to multi party involvement.But especially for the international pipeline project, this is always risk of payback and trade offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatic relationships. 2. 7 Safety and security risk In a broader sense, safety and security risks include factors due to that loss or damage of resources (manpower, machinery and financial resources) or facilities (pipeline, pipeline crossing, gas compressor station) can occur during construction or operation phase of a pipeline. It is very often that loss of work time, machinery and manpower occur due to accident on side because of the negligence of some worker. These risks involve all actions (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc) due to that loss of resources nd production of pipeline can occur. These risks are more likely to occur during operation phase however, these can be occurring in construction stage as well. To cater these risk to occur Health safety policy is strengthen so that to minimize on-site and offsite accidents during construction. It is generally accepted that the pipeline are the target in terrorists’ attacks and wars. For, instance, history prevails that in last five years the total terrorist attacks made on the pipelines in Pakistan were 103. It may be the result of internal political situation of the country but anywhere in the world this factor of risk is considered to be very important.For safe operations, state of the art methodology and technology has been developed which ensure safe exploitation of pipeline, which include remote sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS) and mapping techniques, Light detection and ranging (LIDAR), Global positioning system (GPS), data acquisition (SCADA) and In-line inspection (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 Organizational risk The risks related to organization and organizational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real. Strained relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on solving the problems.Cooperation and communication between the parties are discouraged for fear of the effects of impending litigation. This barrier to communication results from the illconceived notion that uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract terms. The net result has been an increase in the costs of constructed facilities. 2. 5 Natural catastrophic risk Natural catastrophic risks are those on w hich there is no control. They are usually the ‘act of God’ and can occur at anytime and anywhere. Earthquake, floods, hurricanes are the common examples of these risks. However, due to the development of the science and technology in the field of simulation and modeling,Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan 2. 8 Environmental risk Environmental concerns and awareness is increasing everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain approval from the regulatory agencies. This delay in approval practically influence on total costs of the project. Public safety regulations have similar effects. The situation constantly change guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as projects move through the stages of planning to construction due to the change in govt. policies.These moving targets add a significant new dimension of uncertainty which can make it virtually impossible to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost . Risk management reduces the impact of negative risks and enhances positive risk to make opportunities. However, limiting our scope in this section to negative risks, risk management may be defined as a method to reduce the consequences of negative events (risk) tend to occur during construction and operation of pipeline by developing mechanisms and strategies (risk transfer, risk reduction, risk distribution, avoidance, risk enhancement) compatible to the system environment in which project is executed. The strategy of risk management is based on risk analysis results for a particular project.According to Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk management [11] the process includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk management planning Risk identification Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk reduction strategies 3. Ri sk Management Process Generally risk analysis and management had not been applied in construction industry and especially in pipeline projects. It is comparatively new area for pipeline projects, which is rapidly advancing due to the involvement of non native client or contractor. However, the concept of risk analysis and management is getting fame in pipeline project due to involvement of multinational contractor/organizations.Basically risk management deals with management of positive and negative events which occurs during realization of projects. 3. 1 Risk management planning Risk management process (PMI approach) starts with the planning of risk management, which includes a detailed risk management planning. In Risk management planning the proposed course of action for risk analysis is set. The input, output and process are shown in the table 2. Table 2: Process showing Risk Management Planning [19] Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Proj ect scope management Project management plan Planning meeting and analysis Risk Management Plan Planning course of action Process Out put 3. 2 Risk Identification processFor effective risk analysis and management the identification of risk is very important carefully such that no important factor is left which can negatively impact on the project. The risk indemnification process input and output are shown in table 3, which include the following: Information Gathering Techniques: Examples of information gathering techniques used in identifying risk can include brainstorming, Delphi techniques, interviewing, root cause identification and SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 analysis. Brainstorming is important data gathering technique for risk identification in which a group of team members or subject-matter experts (design, construction, purchase, finance etc) together identify expected risks.Delphi is another technique of information gathering used as a way t o reach a consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas Project Documentation Reviews: For risk identification project documentation are reviewed, including plans, assumptions, prior project files, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 consistency between those plans and with the project requirements and assumptions, can be indicators of risk in the project. Assumptions Analysis: Every pipeline project is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions analysis is a tool that explores the validity of assumptions as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Table 3: Process of Risk Identification Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope man agement Project management plan Risk Management plan Checklist Analysis: Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.Diagramming techniques: Some Risk diagramming techniques may also be used for risk identification which includes cause-and-effect diagrams, system or process flow charts and influence diagrams. Process Information collection Documentation review Assumption analysis Checklist analysis Diagramming techniques Out put Risk Register 3. 3 Qualitative risk analysis There are several theories to quantify risks [12, 17]. Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is: Rate of Occurrence i. e. , probability multiplied by the Impact of event equal to Risk Number, mathematically expressed in equation 7. The i nputs and output of qualitative risk analysis process is shown in table-4.PMI defined values of probability and impact factor can be used in risk analysis given in Table 5. However, the selection of one of the value of P for a particle risk from table 5, is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. The objective is to prioritize risk based on their probability and impact assessment. Probability and Impact matrix is used to visualize the impact of risk from least to maximum possibility. Another method called Risk Data Quality Assessment is used which requires accurate and unbiased data Analysis of the quality of risk data is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , using the RBS), the area of the project affected (e. g. , using the Work Breakdown Structure), or other useful c ategory (e. g. , project phase) to determine areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Table – 4 Process showing Qualitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Risk probability and impact assessment Probability and Impact matrix Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk Register (updates) Out put 28Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table 5: Standard values of frequency of occurrence and Impact factors [11] Possibility of occurrence very high chance High chance Greater chance Possible Likely Unlikely Probability (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% Type and level of risk Impact When maximum impact on scope, time and cost High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope Impact Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 Quantitative risk analysisFor quantitative risk analysis any of the following method may be used as illustrated in Table 6. incorporates probabilities and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisions, and uses expected monetary value analysis to help the organization identify the relative values of alternate actions. See also expected monetary value analysis. Sensitivity analysis: Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline value.One typical display of sensitivity analysis is tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing relative importance of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. Expected Mon etary Value (EMV) Analysis: It is a statistical technique that calculates the expected outcome of future scenarios in monetary form that may or may not happen. Modeling and simulation: Modeling and simulation is recommended for cost and schedule risk analysis because it is more powerful and less subject to misapplication than expected monetary value analysis. Simulation uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. 3. 5 Risk eduction strategies Risk register may be obtained from risk management procedure defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) [11], which is a document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. On the basis of risk analysis risk reducing strategy is set which is also given in risk register. The risk register in that way, presents all related information of identified risks including description, category, cause, probabil ity of occurring, impact(s), risk number and the possible strategy set for each risk. Decision Tree: The decision tree is a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the available alternatives. It is used when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It Table 6: Process showing Quantitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Out put Quantitative risk analysis ( Sensitivity analysis, Decision Tree, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, EMV) 29 Risk Register (updates) Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, client or owner) participating in the construction process of oil and gas pipeline can adopt one or combination of course of action given below, depending upon the type of project, lo cation and circumstances.Distribution of risk between participants of the project can be made by: 1. Risk Transfer (insurance, contracts) 2. Contingency Budget 3. Risk mitigation (problem solving and root cause analysis) 4. Risk avoidance 4. Development of Risk Management Model for Pipeline Construction Projects Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk analysis and management may be complicated and laborious for construction project like pipeline. Therefore a model of risk analysis and management is developed which simplifies the process and produce more probable results with the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (Figure 3). Project document review Market Analysis Client/Contractor reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. Risk Classification Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) 3. Risk probability and impact factor Data collection (Authentic source) Data processing (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc distribution) Calculation of Frequency (P) and Impact factor (I) 4. Risk an alysis 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Identification of critical risk 6. Risk management strategy Risk Transfer (Contract, insurance) Risk Distribution (Between parties) Risk Mitigation (Eliminating risk causes) Risk Avoidance 7. Risk monitoring process Documentation Monitoring process and results Check and make changes Data Bank Figure3: Risk Management Model for pipelines construction project. 30Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan STEP-1: Model starts with identification and classification of risks considering the type of construction project. Degree and frequency of risk varies from trunk pipeline to distribution line. Similarly it gives suitable approach for both the major parties i. e. Owner (client) and the Contractor. Before identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor capability and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyzed where project is expected to be executed. The types of risk are also depending upon the ty pe of contractual relationship between the owner and constructing firm. In different ypes of contract (Build-Operate and Transfer, Engineering-Purchase and Construction, Figure, Turnkey contracts, Labour contract, etc) between the owner and constructing body the level and intensity of risk differs [13]. STEP-2: On the basis of risk identification risk are categorized and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is made as shown in Figure 4. Risk identification is the most important thing followed by the probability and impact calculations in whole risk analysis process. Figure 4: Risk Breakdown Structure of gas pipeline project STEP-3: Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality.The selection of PMI defined the values of probability and impact factor given in Table 5 is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial res ults. For instance, it may be difficult some time to distinguish the possibility from â€Å"Higher Chance† to â€Å"Greater Chance† for that an expert can use 60% probability value however, another use 45%. In that way some negligible risk may be superseded to other important risk. Risk impact factor defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) are used in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and impact of event to the project. For risk Monte Carlo Simulation the precise value of probabilities are required.Therefore, probability and impact of each risk may be calculated based on historic data. In this 31 case we the values of probability of different risks are calculated by using different probability distribution curves, however, when the historical data is not available, the probability is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct value of probability for that particular risk published by the related government agency. It is ver y important to define the probability distribution of a risk on the basis of that the frequency of occurrence is calculated. It is observed that the probability distribution of different risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during calculation of probability of each risk the characteristic of risk must be considered to find the appropriate distribution to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 year data of flood [21] depicts that the a normal curve is best suited to find the probability of a given volume/time called as the flood flow may be calculated using Equation 1,2 and 3 [14]. Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Figure 5: Graphical representation of flood data 1990-2001 where P – probability of occurrence Z – area under normal curves for a given value X (the probability of that area can be found out from charts) ? – mean value of the 10 year data of river flows. ? – standard deviation of the mean data.On the basis of historical data, obtained from IRSA, the probability of river flow more than 400 (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is calculated by using measured. Similarly other risks are also quantified based on the characteristic of data distribution curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are interested to find the probability of occurrence earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer Scale. According to construction codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer Scale is often felt, but rarely causes damage. A value of 5. 5 Richer Scale is selected to calculate probability of 32 occurrence under assumption that almost slight damage to well designed buildings can caused major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.Pipelines can go under slight damage of residual. For a random variable X (x > 0 and elsewhere i. e. x < 0 the value of probability is zero) have an exponential distribution with parameter ? then probability distribution is defined as in equation (4), (5) and (6) [14]. Therefore either exponential or gamma distribution (with m =1) may be used for probability calculation of earthquake at a given value (in Richer Scale) using the historical data [9], as shown in the Figure 6. where P – probability of occurrence ? – mean value of historic data ? – standard deviation of the historic data e – 2. 718282 VAR is the variance at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X > 5. 5) = ? 1. e – 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Frequency of occurrence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Earthquake Intensity (Richer scale) Figure 6: Graphical representation 45 year earthquake data STEP-4: On the basis of probability values for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be made which presents quantitative risk analysis for each risk. PMI defined impact factor can be used which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk impact. On the basis of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is made.The following relationship is used for risk analysis [11]: RN = P x I RN – Risk Number P – Probability of occurrence I – Impact factor of risk For parameters the data is not available expert judgment can be used for probability assessment. Risk Number (RN) can be found for all risk identified in Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). Manually it can be identified critical risk having larger risk number, RN based on the one point calculation. However, the more authentic way to identify the critical risks associated to pipeline project is Monte Carlo Simulation approach which is discussed in next step. STEP 5: Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used computational method for generating probability distributions of variables that depend on other variables or param eters represented as probability distributions.Although Monte Carlo simulation has been used since the 1940s, development of computer technology has made it accessible and attractive for many new applications [15]. That availability has coincided with increasing dissatisfaction with the deterministic or point estimate calculations typically used in quantitative risk assessment; as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is rapidly gaining popularity. Monte Carlo simulation, which is a mathematical method used in risk analysis to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic 33 (7) inputs would involve many calculations of the intake rate rather than a single calculation; for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter randomly selected from the probability density function for that variable [16].Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i. e. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.In Monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of iterations. Risks are probable entities, it is possible that all the risk accrued at the same time during project execution and may be no identified risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use Monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most critical and probable risk which can appear in the pi peline project. Risk analysis has been made by using program Riskyproject 1. 3. 3 [20] which is an advanced project management software with integrated risk analysis. RiskyProject is used for planning, scheduling, quantitative risk analysis, and performance measurement of projects with multiple risks and uncertainties.RiskyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project: duration, cost, and finish time with and without risks, crucial tasks, critical risks, and success rate. RiskyProject helps to optimize the course of the project: track project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of mitigation efforts [22]. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulation critical risks are Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7: Risk input in risk register and their quantitative analysis for pre-defined risks Risk Identification and Categorization Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk Register Risk An alysis Freq. Risk reducing StrategyRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk Avoidance Risk Risk Transfer Mitigation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Unstable Government policies Change in regulations Change in labor policy Change in petroleum policy Political instability Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts Change in economic parameters Hike in material prices Unavailability of skilled laborers Change in project scope Insufficient technology Completion of construction not on time Not realistic planning of resources and volume of work Request for increase in project budget In sufficient specialist and engineers Strains in contractual relationships Financial delays Disinvestment from the market Loss ofPartnership Change in credit policy (increase interest rate) Design not completed in time Unexpected obstacle on site (dewatering, rock excavation) Slow communication between team members War Terrorism Accident on site during construction Loss of human life Earthquake Flood Landslides Unexpended weather condition, precipitation wind storms Damage to environment Degradation of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50% 8,10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% Impact (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope. 0. 3- High impact on time, medium impac t on scope and lesser impact on cost. 3. 0. 6- High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximum impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- Frequency of risk is based on expert’s opinion. 6. GO- Frequency of risk is based on statistic available by relevant Government organization. 7. SA- Frequency of risk is based on statistical analysis. 34 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a): Monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most probable cost and duration to complete project. It also presents most probable date of completion of the project considering all identified risks. Figure-7(b): Result obtained from simulation identifying most critical risk impacting scope, duration and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and duration of project [Figure 7 (a) and (b)]. Strategy for risk management is set ac cordingly. The following analysis and results was produced by the programme: 35 Sensitivity analysis Success rate of completion Critical risks affecting cost Critical risks affecting duration of project Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Critical activities. Most probable duration Most probable cost of the project Most probable date of completion of project. STEP 6: On the basis of critical risk identification by Monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During construction process the impact of risk can be lowered by changing the schedule of construction for example 95% of probability of flood occurrence is in period from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to continue the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the occurrence. STEP 7: The results or set methodol ogy for risk management must be periodically monitored and checked for improvement. Lesson learned and recommendation should be send to â€Å"Data Bank† which may be useful for risk analysis and management of another pipeline project of similar nature. organizational capacity for design, construction and operation. Organizational or technological risk like insufficient resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by improving the process or application of new technologies available in this field. New state of the art technologies are helpful in managing change at any stage of the project. Historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence between June and August. This risk can be minimized during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. Other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. Earthquake risk during construction phase depends on the length of ex ecution of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the execution increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design based on earthquake/horizontal forces. †¢ †¢ 5. Conclusion and Recommendations †¢ Probability of risk occurrence â€Å"P† comes out to be the function of project duration â€Å"T† both during construction and operation phase. However Intensity of destruction or Impact is a function of enterprise internal and external environment. Three most critical tasks calculated by Risky Project are Excavation, Transportation of Material and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, Change in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project completion calculated by Risky project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. Similarly the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the basis of that contingency budget of project can be formulated to cater the risk. The secondary risks like change in material prices, construction not finished in time or budget and design not in time can be reduced or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by strengthening the internal Acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, Senior General Manager and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, Deputy General Manager (Projects), SNGPL are acknowledged for their contribution and support in providing data and relevant material. †¢ REFERENCE [1] Economic Survey of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, Energy Sector of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. [2] Annual Report; Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakist an (2006), 511. [3] Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility report by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 111-119. [4] Syed Hassan Nawab; Proc. 3rd Pakistan oil & gas conference, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2007), 136-145 [5] Amberish K. D. ; A pipeline through Pakistan, Dehli, India (2004), 131-137. [6] John W. , Edward G. ; International Project Risk Assessment: Methods, Procedures, and Critical †¢ †¢ 36Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Factors (Center Construction Industry Studies, Report No. 31, The University of Texas at Austin) Austin, Texas. (2003), 41-49. [7] FIDIC  © Conditions of contract for construction. (Multilateral Development Bank Harmonized Edition). Geneva, Switzerland. (2005), 217-229. [8] Armbruster J. ; Research Journal, 83(1978) 8891. [9] Mahdi S. , Muhammad S. ; Proc. 1st International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (ICCE), Lahore, Pakistan, (2006), 177-182. [10] D'Appoloni a E. ; Proc. of 9th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering,Tokyo, Japan, 4(1979), 410-414. 11] PMBOK ® Guide; A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, 3rd Edition, PA, USA, (2004), 237-264. [12] Peter C. , Robert P. ; Proc. 2nd International Deepwater Pipeline Technology Conference. London, UK, (1999), 291-297. [13] Conditions of Contract for EPC/Turnkey Projects, Guidance for the preparation of the particular Conditions Forms of Tender, Contract Agreement and Dispute Adjudication Agreement, USA, (1999), 4-12. [14] Sher Muhammad Ch. ; Introduction to statistical theory, Ilmi Kitab Khana, Urdu Bazar, Lahore, Pakistan, 6th Ed, (1996), 361-370. [15] Susan R. P. ; Proc. Int. Conference on Risk Assessment and Policy Association meeting in Alexandria, Virginia, (1997), 245-255. [16] Brenda McCabe; Proc. Int.Conference on Simulation, Toronto, Canada, (2003), 15611565. [17] Jack R. , Meredith, Samuel J. , Mantel Jr. ; Project Management, 5th Ed, NJ, USA, (2002), 191105. [18] Wells Louis, Gleason Eric; Harvard Business Review Journal, 73(5)(1995) 44-54. [19] CPM 128: Project Management Boot Camp, (2006), 11. 1-11. 30. [20] www. intaver. com/accessed on 10th March, 2007 [21] Annual Flood Report; Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 1-5 also available online on http://www. pakistan. gov. pk/ministries/index. jsp ? MinID=24=291. [22] User’s Guide to RiskyProject Professional 1. 3, Intavar Institute Inc. , USA, (2006), 31-38. 37